What Bogut brings and how much better will team be

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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2012 8:20 pm
Bogut provides in the areas of huge need on the Warriors. Health is the only question mark with him, otherwise, he is a candidate for DPOY most years. I still think the team needs a very good SF, in order to be championship contender, but with health permitting, the Warriors could easily be a 50 win or more team straight away. Players like Curry can score far more freely with Bogut.

I'd be great if Bogut offensively drew alot of defensive attention from the opposition, because then that'd really open up the outside shots for the likes of Curry, Klay and Rush. Maybe even more important than getting a very good SF, is trading Lee in some package for a great PF. One that is great offensively and draws double teams and so forth.

I like Millsap of Utah, but he really isn't a PF that gets enough defensive attention that it opens up shots. He does a bit, but not at a superstar level as such. His teammate Al Jefferson does and his contract is up after next season. Don't really know how to get him, don't think he is anywhere near as great as he was before his injury and surgery some three or four years ago, but his offense is still good enough that he could open things up for the shooters. Don't think Utah would take anything but young very good player and future picks, but who knows, they've got Favors and Kanter looking to start very soon and they might lose AJeff for nothing anyway in a year. We don't have the young players, other than Curry and maybe Klay (and I wouldn't give Curry to them right now), that Utah would want, but they really just need a good PG and good backups, as they've got young guys at SG and SF, as well as their yong bigs.

Just a thought, but a great offensive PF that draws alot of defensive attention from the opposition, next to Bogut, could really make the team much stronger. If we do get to keep the lottery pick, wonder if the now rebuilding Blazers would give Aldridge for the #7 pick and Lee. Blazers have only eight players under contract for next season and two of them, including Crawford, are player options, so maybe only six players under contract, so they need more players. Lee and the #7 pick, which could get them another starter for sure, would be equal value at least.

Bogut's defense and rebounding are capable of making a big difference, but you couple that with a great offensive PF that draws double teams and such (which Lee doesn't), things are much better for everybody.
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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2012 11:35 pm
I agree with your assessment on most of all you said except that health being a question mark. This isn't like Curry where he is getting the same injury over and over again. His injuries were freak accidents and you can easily come back from them. I think the only reason we are talking about his health at this point is because a lot of people inaccurately say he is injury prone when he really is not injury prone.
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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2012 11:49 pm
+1, Blackfoot. Great first post!
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2012 1:43 am
migya wrote:I'd be great if Bogut offensively drew alot of defensive attention from the opposition, because then that'd really open up the outside shots for the likes of Curry, Klay and Rush.


Always thought of Bogut as one of the best passing big men in the league. With David Lee another solid big man passer the Warriors will see plenty of open shots on the perimeter with these 2 complimenting one another.

I think David Lee is the better passer in the ISO Motion, A Dribble at the top of the key & he finds the cutting guards/SF where as Bogut is definitely the better passer from the double team down low.

As much as David Lee is a liability on Defense, these 2 will compliment each other on D & even more so on offence (ball movement)
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2012 3:11 am
I think the fans will be in for a treat next year honestly - witness some very good basketball. I can't remember the last time the fans have had a legitimate team. Legitimate size, legitimate frontcourt, no small ball, etc. Also have some high basketball IQ on this team. Not only that, but probably what I like more is that we have a lot of gritty players who are competitors and want to win and are willing to sacrifice for the team. Can anyone really say that Monta would be ok scoring 15 pts a game if it meant the team wins more? I can't with a straight face. That has an effect on other players when they know the main guy is more in it for his stats and PPG rank. Warriors have a real team now... a good mix of vets and youth w/potential, good balance, and will be better on defense due to Bogut manning the paint and Klay taking over at SG. Keep thinking the Bibby Peja Webb Divac Sacramento Kings as a good comparison. Time to get cocky about this team. Randolph Gasol? Milsap Jefferson? Gasol / Bynum? Bring It!!!! We got D Lee / Bogut and a couple of sharpshooters on the perimeter. I expect playoffs.

One area of upgrade though is I think this team needs a quick, high flyer, defensive type at SF.
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2012 3:48 am
After all, that's what that Kings team you are comparing us to had...good defensive SG in Doug Christie. They were worse afterwards with Hedo, Christie was a big part of that team. If Bogut could play the role Divac did for the Kings, we could be great.

The difference being that they had scoring SF, sharpshooter in Peja, and a great defender in Christie, while we have sharpshooter at SG in Klay, and we need a good defensive SF then.

And Curry is better shooter than Bibby was even in his prime, and he has much more talent and potential to be a true leader at PG. That SF is really a big deal.
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2012 7:38 am
PAWNO wrote:
migya wrote:I'd be great if Bogut offensively drew alot of defensive attention from the opposition, because then that'd really open up the outside shots for the likes of Curry, Klay and Rush.


Always thought of Bogut as one of the best passing big men in the league. With David Lee another solid big man passer the Warriors will see plenty of open shots on the perimeter with these 2 complimenting one another.

I think David Lee is the better passer in the ISO Motion, A Dribble at the top of the key & he finds the cutting guards/SF where as Bogut is definitely the better passer from the double team down low.

As much as David Lee is a liability on Defense, these 2 will compliment each other on D & even more so on offence (ball movement)



But as I said, neither draw double teams and that much attention from the opposition. They both pass very well and score well enough to be major contributors, that is a very nice fact, but having a PF, like AJefferson as an example, that was so good offensively scoring one on one, next to Bogut would be the most effective.
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2012 7:40 am
Guybrush wrote:After all, that's what that Kings team you are comparing us to had...good defensive SG in Doug Christie. They were worse afterwards with Hedo, Christie was a big part of that team. If Bogut could play the role Divac did for the Kings, we could be great.

The difference being that they had scoring SF, sharpshooter in Peja, and a great defender in Christie, while we have sharpshooter at SG in Klay, and we need a good defensive SF then.

And Curry is better shooter than Bibby was even in his prime, and he has much more talent and potential to be a true leader at PG. That SF is really a big deal.



Bibby sure was great come playoff time, nothing special in during the season. Curry has alot to prove to say that he is a better shooter than Bibby was back then. True about Doug Christie. Average offense, great defense and that makes a big difference. The biggest difference though, is that Webber was a superstar PF that drew double teams, just what I've been saying would be best next to Bogut :wink:
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2012 10:27 am
Here's what I see Bogut bringing:

+++ Interior defense
+++ Defensive intensity
+++ Size

++ Rebounding

+ Ball movement
+ Post scoring

Yeah, Bogut will draw some double-teams, but it'll mostly be against teams like Toronto, Philly, Houston and other run and gun squads. He's not an enormous offensive threat; but he's very smart and makes good decisions. I see him deferring a lot of offense unless he's matched up against Chuck Hayes. He was offensively passive in Milwaukee, I doubt it'll change here.

A bit more of a plus will be having an ogre like Bogut clearing glass with a rebound hound like DLee. Dominating possessions should be our calling card next year; if Bogut can grab 8 or 9 boards alongside Lee's 11, we're gonna be a flat-out physical force.

But the real transformation, the true pay-off in this deal, is Andrew Bogut's defense. Initially a charge-taker, Bogut has incorporated shot-blocking into his arsenal as a means to keep offensive players on their toes. Not knowing whether Bogut is going to contest a shot or flop is a major strategic advantage (as most centers in this league can only do one or the other). Not only that, but Bogut will change the entire culture of our defense. Fear:

zclowe wrote:The interesting test will come on defense, where Milwaukee has been significantly stingier with Bogut on the floor in each of the last four seasons, according to Basketball Value. He’s an elite rebounder and shot-blocker, he defends the pick-and-roll well and scouts rave about his habit of calling out opponent plays and generally quarterbacking the Bucks’ defense.


Imagine how much better a guy like David Lee is gonna look on defense if Bogut can call opposing plays out on the fly! We've raved about his defense for months, but those of you without League Pass who haven't seen Bogey perform on a consistent basis are in for a SERIOUS treat next season.

Simply put, I believe the addition of Bogut rockets the Warriors from the draft lottery, past the 8th-seed cusp, and into serious contention for an upper seed in the West (I predict 5 next year, but it wouldn't shock me if it were closer to 3 or 4. He's THAT much of a game-changer).
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2012 6:25 pm
good post, I think Bogut might be the most well-rounded center in the league. Not as dominant in certain areas than others, but not a whole lot of major weaknesses. Those other teams you mentioned, that's where I think the W's are going to get a boost in their win %. They'll beat those weaker teams without good frontcourts - so now W"s will be at the advantage playing inside ball...and also being able to stay competitive with the more elite frontcourts like Gasol / Bynum, etc. Ball movement on this team's gonna be unreal. Curry, Klay moving without the ball, inside passing between the bigs, etc. gonna be fun to watch.
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2012 6:55 pm
I hope Lee is effective next to Bogut and that his lack of defense doesn't continue to be an issue. I hope he can coninue to score prety well like he does and rebound also. I do think it is how much things open up for the shooters that counts even more, because when things open up, scoring is easier and you win much more.
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PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 2:54 pm
Yes... But that's like saying you need more horsepower to get a better top speed in your car. If you drop your car's weight, that'll increase speed without a need for additional horsepower.

Concurrently, if Bogut transforms our defense and we give up (say) 7 or 8 less points per game, we'd add victories too. Scoring helps, but Bogut's best offensive contributions are his passing and his rebounding.

Drawing double-teams and opening up shooters will likely be David Lee's job... And with Bogut in tow, you can bet the opposition can no longer throw their best front court defender at Lee; often times this year, you'd see them switch a 5 onto Lee (with no fear of Udoh, Biedrins, or Tyler mashing on their 4). Bogut changes that. Now, Lee can deal almost exclusively with 4's. That'll do wonders to this team's efficiency.
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PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 1:14 am
Yea, things look to be much better. Still ,I'd like to see even more improvement, but likely the starters will stay as they are, maybe the lottery pick will be a starting Sf if we do keep it. Likely any other moves will be with backups, though salary cap space is short.
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PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 1:34 am
I just hope that Lee will look better now that we have a real center. I don't want him at 5 any more (didn't want him there even before), and I hope that he won't have to force some shots any more. Some of those shots look like he played one on one in some street game. Hopefully he won't lose his strength that much, because he won't have to wrestle with opposing centers, and that will let him be more involved in rebounds (which should be his forte) and scoring with less attempts.
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PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 1:49 am
To me Lee plays well enough in most things but defense. It's his defense that has to be masked and Bogut could well do that. Be interesting.
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